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Can Tampa Bay keep up with up-and-coming sister cities? New study casts doubt

Megan Holmes

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There’s no denying the magnetism of the Tampa Bay area. In St. Pete, beautiful beaches combine with world-class arts attractions, walkability and the assortment of funky local businesses that comprise the best cities. These are the things that make a city into a place people want to live.

The rest of the world is taking notice. Over the next 20 years, the Tampa Bay area population is projected to increase by more than a million.

But certain economic factors play a serious role in the growth of cities, and Tampa Bay isn’t keeping up. Increasing cost of living and lagging wage growth are nationwide problems. But are they exacerbated in some areas? What if you could move to a city within a day’s driving distance of Tampa Bay, with a similar mix of jobs and economic circumstances, and enjoy a 22 percent increase in standard of living?

It’s absolutely possible, according to a study by Indeed Hiring Lab. The study, released Wednesday and profiled by CityLab, uses Indeed job postings and 2016 cost of living data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis to analyze which U.S. cities’ average salaries go the furthest.

According to the Indeed survey, while outright salary numbers are higher in big cities like San Francisco and New York, adjusted salaries (that take into account cost of housing, goods and services) are highest not in these colossal metros, but in smaller “second cities.” However, even when adjusted for cost of living, top cities tend to be plagued by a whole host of other issues, including high unemployment and slow job growth.

Places that have it all – high adjusted salaries, low unemployment, and good future job prospects – include Duluth, MN, Wilmington, NC, Lubbock, TX, and coming in at number 10 – Gainesville, FL.

While not everyone is going to run out and move to one of these top “bang for your buck” cities, people may be more likely to move to a nearby city that offers a substantially better standard of living compared to their hometowns.

“To flesh that out, we looked for the biggest differences in adjusted salaries for pairs of metros that are less than 500 miles apart and have at least a 75 percent overlap in their mix of job postings,” reported Jed Kolko, Chief Economist at Indeed Hiring Lab.

Topping the list? Birmingham, AL., as it compares to Tampa – St. Petersburg – Clearwater, FL. Birmingham’s adjusted annual salary is – on average – 22 percent higher than that of the Tampa Bay area.

Tampa Bay and Birmingham are both up-and-coming areas. They’re developing reputations for entrepreneurship and tech ecosystems, they both have innovation districts (called an Innovation Depot in Birmingham) and they host a similar mix of job opportunities. But the two metro areas also differ in many ways. Tampa Bay is coastal, Birmingham is landlocked. Tampa Bay metro’s population is nearly twice that of Birmingham, and Tampa Bay is five times as densely populated as Birmingham, according to 2016 census data.

One thing Tampa Bay has going for it? The very fact that it is a coastal region. For all of the possible negative consequences of being coastal (rising tides, hurricanes, transportation challenges), it remains a desirable place due to weather and lifestyle. It has been proven by human behavior that people are willing to trade income or housing affordability for lifestyle.

Location itself can be seen as an asset, according to an article by CityLab. Economists have found that “the place you choose to settle or stay has a cost associated with it—i.e., how much you’re paying in rent. And every location pays back on that investment in job opportunities, education for your children, cultural amenities and so forth.”

Given the challenges posed by high population density, how can Tampa Bay increase wages and job opportunities, and decrease cost of living? Can the unbeatable location and cultural assets of the Tampa Bay area make up for a 22 percent deficit in standard of living?

“All else equal, a higher adjusted salary is better than a lower one,” Kolko concludes. “But in job hunting – like so many other things – all else is never equal.”

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