St. Pete faces a ‘worst-case scenario’ with Milton

Hurricane Milton explosively intensified from a Category 1 to Category 5 storm in just 10 hours Monday, with sustained winds reaching a historic 185 mph.

While Milton slightly weakened late Monday night, meteorologists still expect a Category 3 storm to make landfall in or near Tampa Bay. In its 5 a.m. update, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said residents should expect an “extremely life-threatening” storm surge of 10 to 15 feet and “devastating” winds. 

Although the 7 a.m. forecast now calls for landfall at roughly 2 a.m. Thursday, the area could experience tropical storm-force winds by Wednesday afternoon. At a Monday evening briefing, Amber Boulding, emergency management director for St. Petersburg, said those conditions could prevent first responders from rescuing residents for an extended period.

“That’s why it’s so important that we need folks to leave,” Boulding told the Catalyst. “We have the wind threat, and we have the water threat. And once those winds reach a certain mile per hour, it’s too late to evacuate, and it’s too late for us to come and get you.

“This is the type of storm we have always called our worst-case scenario.”

A cacophony of emergency weather alerts reverberated through St. Petersburg Police Department headquarters Monday evening as Milton broke rapid intensification records. Boulding said the city would likely experience “catastrophic” wind and rain, and “that’s not a term we use lightly.”

She expects the area to see twice the amount of flooding it did during Hurricane Helene. That was before the NHC increased its storm surge forecast by two to three feet. The area could also see nearly a foot of rain and has a “high” flash flood risk of “at least 70%.”

Pinellas County officials have ordered mandatory evacuations for Zones A, B and C and all mobile homes. Cathie Perkins, emergency management director for the county, said Monday afternoon that the order would extend to those in Zone D if the storm surge forecast reached 15 feet.

That would significantly increase the number of residents ordered to evacuate – already over 500,000. Several people have reported running out of gas on gridlocked interstates.

A Florida Department of Transportation live stream showed extensive traffic delays early Tuesday morning on I-75 northbound near Wesley Chapel. Screengrab.

Officials expect traffic congestion and gas lines to escalate Tuesday. “Our regular clearance time estimates are 26 hours for a Level C evacuation,” Perkins said. “We are ahead of that curve.”

The Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office and SPPD have gone door to door warning residents and businesses of evacuation orders. Officials have atypically encouraged people to leave the county if able.

Sheriff Bob Gualtieri said he would restrict access to barrier islands at 7 p.m. Tuesday. He also pledged to ensure businesses shutter.

The SPPD began passing out fliers warning of evacuation orders to St. Petersburg businesses Monday afternoon. Officers will offer those in violation a warning before a $500 fine.

Business owners who refuse to close could face arrest. An SPPD spokesperson said enforcement was necessary to protect lives and mitigate water system impacts.

The owner of a boarded boutique on Central Avenue pledged to see customers soon. Photo by Mark Parker.

Mayor Ken Welch stressed the importance of understanding the reality residents face. He said restoring power, municipal services and a sense of normalcy would present a challenge “for years to come.”

“But the most important thing at this point is to save lives,” Welch added.

He warned that two of the city’s three water treatment facilities would likely shutter due to an extensive storm surge. That would leave roughly 66% of the city’s population unable to flush toilets, bathe or wash clothes and dishes.

Welch said officials would make that call “closer to the storm’s landfall,” according to surge forecasts. City Administrator Rob Gerdes noted the “high probability” of residents who shelter at home lacking electricity, potable water and sewer service. “So, please take those things into consideration as you’re making plans.”

County officials base evacuation orders on storm surge forecasts rather than wind speeds. Residents outside of mandatory zones could still face devastation.

Boulding implored those who eschew evacuating to stay at shelters. She said the city faces yet another “unprecedented” storm, and many residents depleted or donated resources in Helene’s aftermath.

“And that wears on people,” Boulding added. “It wears on me. But that doesn’t change the fact it’s here – it’s coming. We have to prepare people for the forecast we have, which is a catastrophic storm, Category 3 or higher, making landfall in Tampa Bay.”

For more city information regarding Hurricane Milton, visit the website here.