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A St. Pete paradox? Gains, losses define the economy
A sharp decline in St. Petersburg’s workforce mirrors the precipitous drop in job creation. However, property tax and new construction values continue to soar.
Revitalization efforts in historically underserved South St. Petersburg have paid dividends, while unemployment remains low, despite a slight uptick. The Tampa Bay Rays are no longer among the city’s top employers, and the long-term effects of an unprecedented hurricane season remain unknown.
Although the city’s State of the Economy event Tuesday highlighted a city in flux, officials expressed confidence in its trajectory. After several data-filled presentations, Mayor Ken Welch told local media that St. Petersburg’s focus on tech and innovation attracts higher earners, which “skews the housing market.”
“We have to put more into truly affordable housing,” Welch added. “All those levers affect each other. But bottom line – the story on St. Pete is out. It’s a good story, and folks still want to move here.”
Taxable values continue soaring in the city, led by growth downtown and in the South St. Petersburg Community Redevelopment Area. Image: City documents.
St. Petersburg’s population increased by .47% in 2024, well below a post-pandemic high of 1.32% in 2022. Pinellas County lost .36% of its population, the first decrease in five years.
James Corbett, city development administrator, noted that St. Petersburg’s population has increased by 3.38% since 2020. Nearly a third of all Pinellas residents live in the city.
The cost of living in Tampa Bay is lower than the U.S. average, higher than the Orlando metro area and on par with Austin. “While our community has faced some significant challenges in the last year, our healthy population growth can lower the average cost of living and position St. Petersburg to bounce back stronger than ever,” Corbett opined.
Welch said St. Petersburg has shed the “sleepy image of heaven’s waiting room” and emerged as one of the nation’s “most desirable places to live.” He credited smart and inclusive growth for fueling the city’s attraction.
Economic trends in the South St. Petersburg Community Redevelopment Area (CRA) underscore the mayor’s point. Taxable values have spiked 15.4% since 2020, to $2.3 billion. That is 4.8% higher than the city’s average.
Economic and workforce development director Brian Caper explained that tax values fund a financing mechanism that allows officials to offer down-payment assistance, support small businesses and subsidize affordable and workforce housing.
Welch does not believe that over $1 billion in new property tax values since 2020 signifies the historically Black area’s gentrification. “I think the timing on the South St. Pete CRA was almost perfect,” he told the Catalyst.
“It has funded so much in affordable and workforce housing, and job training,” Welch continued. “I think we created it right at the right time to capture that growth. If you look at the record, a ton of what’s been created has gone right back into affordable and workforce housing.”
St. Petersburg’s labor force has shrunk, particularly compared to pandemic-era growth. Image: City documents.
Downtown St. Petersburg continues to pace the city’s growth. Raymond James Financial ($130.37 million) topped the taxpayer rankings; downtown developments occupied second through eighth place.
Caper noted that those projects “generate significantly higher tax revenue per acre and greatly contribute to the city’s ability to fund new projects and programs throughout St. Petersburg.” For example, the Ascent condominiums paid $100.4 million per acre, compared to just $4.6 million for Raymond James.
The city set another record in 2024 with nearly $1.4 billion in construction value and 35,000 permits issued. While Hurricanes Helene and Milton contributed to those totals, Caper said “much of that activity” occurred in early 2025.
St. Petersburg’s job growth dropped by 3% in 2024 after increasing by roughly 6% in 2021 and 2022. The decrease more than doubled the regional average. Employment creation in Florida declined by just .04%.
However, the city fared better than Pinellas County (-5.56%). Caper attributed the drop to election-induced economic uncertainties, increased living costs and the 2024 hurricane season.
The Rays, notably, were not mentioned as a top employer after withdrawing from plans to lead the Gas Plant’s rebirth as a vibrant mixed-use community. The team ranked 10th in 2024 with a purported 4,000 employees.
The latest list includes Raymond James, Charter Communications, Jabil, Johns Hopkins All Children’s Hospital, Orlando Health Bayfront Hospital and Power Design.
New job creation has also dropped precipitously in St. Petersburg. Image: City documents.
Russell Williams, director of recruiting and talent strategy at Power Design, stressed the importance of fostering public-private partnerships to propel the local workforce. He said the design-build firm’s success story is “St. Petersburg’s success story, and we don’t take that for granted.”
“We’re proud to call this city home, and we’re deeply committed to seeing it grow smartly, sustainably and with the people at the center of the process.”
Caper believes Foot Locker’s relocation to St. Petersburg will still generate 150 new high-paying jobs, per an incentive package, despite Dick’s Sporting Goods acquiring the company. He said the Gas Plant’s future remains “exceedingly bright,” with or without the Rays.
After the event, Welch reiterated plans to redevelop some Gas Plant – now home to Tropicana Field – parcels while the Rays fulfill their stadium lease through 2028. Priorities include about 100 affordable housing units, a new home for the Woodson African American Museum of Florida and a workforce development program.
“We won’t have 30,000 jobs in one shot like the (new) stadium would be, but as that Historic Gas Plant area is developed, there will be jobs coming,” Welch said. “We’re going to train up people for those jobs that are coming within three years.”
S
May 23, 2025at12:22 pm
Obviously people, rightfully, can’t stand the mayor and his supporters on the city council. For lots of good reasons.
All he does is pose for photos now. He’s such a self promoter it’s revolting. He stopped posting on the city’s Facebook page because he can’t hide the negative comments there. By shadow banning people there.
And our city flooded the other day on May 13 because of a thunderstorm. Sound familiar people? The storm water system failed again. It’s not climate change. Or global warming. Or rising sea levels. That was just a plain old rain storm.
The most important road in our city, I 275, was cut off. Other neighborhoods were flooded.
What were the locals thinking when they elected him?
The other people here criticizing him are spot on.
S. Rose Smith-Hayes
May 22, 2025at4:12 pm
Go back to the original promises made to the Gas Plant residents. What were they? The Rays got a rude awakening when they learned how the stadium really came to be. If you treated your residents that way, how would you treat them?? No different………
S. Rose Smith-Hayes
May 22, 2025at4:09 pm
My niece graduated high school in the mid 1980’s. Most of the males in her class have left the area. They live in North Pinellas, in Hillsborough and across the Skyway bridge. They said there were no good jobs and it is too expensive to live here. Others still work here but live out of town. Housing costs and salaries do Not match. Folk making between $12 to $20 an hour cannot afford rent. There needs to be 2 or more adults working to afford a one bedroom apartment. 2 bedroom houses are renting for $2500 to $3,000 a month. Affordable Housing requires an annual salary of $40,000+. Grocery prices are ridiculous. Living is Not easy. If the infrastructure is not repaired, we will Not be able to flush our toilets nor drive or walk our streets when it rains.
OriginalJud
May 22, 2025at7:48 am
My property taxes also jumped for the first time in this administration to over 4K a year now, and I still have a dirt alleyway in this modern city. Also our new and fabulous downtown… no one can afford to eat or buy drinks in these places
Alan DeLisle
May 22, 2025at6:51 am
The job growth rate decline of 3% says it all. The worse stat you could possible have. It means private sector confidence in the city is rapidly declining. The State of the Economy is not good. You don’t hear this at an event like this but you do hear it behind closed doors and in objective statistical information.
Too bad the Chamber won’t say it because they owe their support to Welch for following their shallow support of the Rays deal in return for the Ray’s membership contributions.
City of St Pete, you’re tied up in knots. The 3% job decline proves it.
John
May 22, 2025at3:21 am
What we need in St. Petersburg is an election-induced replacement of the mayor, city council and all those unnecessary and/or incompetent city employees who support these who failed to properly manage the uncontrolled growth while failing to provide needed infrastructure improvements in the city.
Property tax revenue has increased dramatically while our water treatment and management systems have deteriorated and our roads have crumbled while Welch and his puppets tout affordable housing as the answer to our stormwater drainage debacle.
Ryan Todd
May 21, 2025at5:22 pm
My property taxes have skyrocketed while Welch has been in office while essential service delivery has been greatly diminished. Welch is too focused on playing a failed developer than actually making sure the city is functioning well.
How many affordable units have been built with the increased tax revenue? The city should get out lf the business of affordable housing development in a period of increased material and labor costs. Explore a voucher program instead. Let the private sector build the units and we can make existing units affordable today.
Suzanna
May 21, 2025at4:10 pm
Welch is going to decrease rents organically. First he runs the city into the ground and then when sewage, crime and, crony capitalism , DEI and straight up negligence do their work, apartments will be given away for free. You wont even need a section 8 voucher.