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NOAA predicts another ‘above normal’ hurricane season
The 2025 hurricane season begins June 1, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its official outlook. The agency predicts a 60% chance of an above normal season, using a combination of scientific models and forecasting tools.
The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, six to 10 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including three to five major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
In a prepared statement, NOAA administrators said they have a 70% confidence in these ranges. “NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast,” the statement added.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
Hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton caused catastrophic flooding and wind damage to the Tampa Bay area, and other parts of the Southeastern United States, last fall. Government forecasters had accurately predicted a rough ‘24, naming an 85% probability of an above-average season.
Warming Atlantic and Gulf temperatures, NOAA said, are among the factors leading to the 2025 predictions. Others are weak wind shear and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.
Also noted were changing patterns in the global atmospheric climate systems known as El Niño and La Niña.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in the statement. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Hurricane Season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Read the NOAA Hurricane Outlook at this link.
Bradley cochran
May 23, 2025at4:46 pm
They keep sounding the alarm, but the only thing that actually changes is the storm names.
Lucas stone
May 23, 2025at12:43 pm
Above normal again?? We get the warnings every year, but what actually changes?? People are still recovering from the last one and we’re already bracing for the next. WHERE’S the real prep? WHERE’S the plan??
Alyssa haley
May 23, 2025at10:32 am
Another busy season coming and Tampa Bay still can’t get the basics right. Feels like we’re always one storm away from a mess.
S
May 22, 2025at4:00 pm
St. Petersburg Flooding Is a Government Failure, Not a Climate Event
When routine rainstorms—like the one on May 13, 2025—can shut down I-275, the most critical highway in St. Petersburg, and flood entire neighborhoods, the issue isn’t climate change. It’s the city’s complete failure to maintain basic infrastructure.
The storm wasn’t a hurricane. It wasn’t some historic anomaly. It was just rain. And it was enough to turn major roadways into rivers and neighborhoods into holding ponds. That’s not nature—it’s negligence.
Anyone who lived through the early September 2024 flood knows exactly what this city looks like when the stormwater system fails. That storm turned St. Pete into a disaster zone—businesses closed, cars totaled, homes flooded. Not because of some freak occurrence, but because the city refuses to invest in or maintain the one thing that’s supposed to protect residents during normal Florida weather.
And now, predictably, the city’s going to do what it always does—shift the blame. They’ll start throwing around buzzwords like “rising sea levels,” “climate change,” “global warming,” as if those explain why your street turns into a canal every time there’s a thunderstorm.
It’s dishonest. It’s deliberate. And it’s insulting. This isn’t about the sea creeping up on us. This is about a city that won’t do its job and hopes you’re too distracted, too busy, or too uninformed to notice.
Every time a road floods, every time a neighborhood is underwater, every time the power goes out because equipment wasn’t upgraded—remember: it’s not nature’s fault. It’s the city’s.