Panelists discuss the future of Tampa Bay’s economy

What will the economy look like in the Tampa Bay area in 2036? 

That question was at the center of a panel discussion that took place in St. Petersburg Wednesday evening. The participants were Florida Housing Coalition CEO Ashon Nesbitt, Pinellas County Economic Development director Dr. Cynthia Johnson, Tampa Bay Partnership president and CEO Bemetra Simmons and University of Tampa associate professor of economics Dr. Michael Coon. 

The panelists discussed the state of the economy in the region first. 

“If it’s growth, we’re getting an A,” Simmons explained. “If it’s transportation and infrastructure, we are not getting an A.” 

The Tampa Bay region has approximately five and a half million people. A majority of them are “in the prime working ages.” Many people between the ages of 25 and 34 are moving to the area. However, she said, the average wage is about $66,000 a year. This is roughly $11,000 less than the national average. 

While salaries have increased every year, home, transportation and food costs are rising at a higher rate. This, Simmons explained, has created an affordability challenge in the region. Nesbitt added that affordable housing is “oftentimes not very close to where our job centers are.” 

“A lot of folks are coming here because the opportunity is here,” he said. “So, that starts to shape how housing responds to that.” 

However, Johnson explained that the Tampa Bay community supports a wide range of fields. These range from aviation to financial services to technology to homeland security. 

“We have the epicenter of industry happening around our region,” she said. “Why do I think this is so important? Well, we have a diversified economy here. So, we don’t rely on one industry to carry out our economy, which I think is part of the reason why we were able to do so well as far as coming back from Covid. Just think if tourism was our only industry.” 

Coon believes the Tampa Bay region’s economy is “doing a little better on average than the rest of the country.” However, he argued that not everyone has benefited from the growth. 

For example, Coon explained that while the stock market is thriving right now, many individuals do not receive their income from stocks. 

“So, people who are on the upper end of wealth distribution are doing quite well, but the people who are on the bottom end are still struggling,” he said. “They’re seeing their wages stagnate and seeing prices go up.” 

When asked about the future of the economy and trends, Coon emphasized the impact of emerging technologies. “The wildcard is going to be what happens with artificial intelligence,” he said. “We’re not really sure how to use it quite yet.” 

The tool could have positive benefits on the economy, Coon believes. However, it may have some use cases that could hurt the economy. He explained that new technologies can replace jobs, but also help create different positions. To exemplify, Coon said that the invention of automobiles launched “a whole industry of mechanics and technicians.” 

He argued that implementation of AI will be key in determining its benefits. To help educate students on how to effectively utilize the technology, the University of Tampa recently introduced a minor in AI applications. 

“We have a lot of workers here in Tampa Bay who have gotten their skillset through non-traditional educational paths,” Simmons added. “I think there’s a huge opportunity for us to talk about how we can assist them before they are impacted by AI to help them with those critical thinking skills.” 

Johnson said that academic systems are becoming more “agile” and are not as “stagnant” as they were in the past. Some colleges and universities are offering short-term training and industry specific certificates. This gives people “a pathway to economic mobility.” 

Coon added that individuals do not necessarily need a bachelor’s degree to get a good job. Professionals in industries such as construction, plumbing and electrical have done well. 

“About half of the employment in the Tampa Bay area is by small businesses,” he said. “Everybody thinks that it’s the corporations coming in and the billionaires that are creating all of the jobs.” 

Coon believes that the healthcare system is one of the country’s biggest economic challenges. Small businesses have more difficulty negotiating health insurance agreements for their employees in comparison to large companies. 

“If you’re a small business or you’re self-employed or something like that, it’s almost impossible to pay for a decent healthcare plan,” he said. “So, that’ll prevent a lot of people from taking the risk of starting their own business.” 

Coon explained that many individuals are “stuck in jobs that they don’t want to leave” because they are afraid they will lose their health insurance. He argued that if plans were more competitive for all, this could impact the national and local economy’s growth. 

“What we do know is that any good economy has to always be ready for the next thing,” Johnson added. “It’s our goal that we leave our community better than we found it so that future generations will have a strong economy to live and grow in.” 

The event was sponsored by the Foundation for a Healthy St. Petersburg.