Q4 2025 analysis: Tampa Bay’s office market on strong footing

Tampa Bay’s office market ended 2025 on its strongest footing since before the pandemic, according to a new report released by global commercial real estate firm JLL. The Q4 2025 analysis points to a rare alignment of strong tenant demand, shrinking inventory and rising rents that is reshaping office dynamics across the region, including St. Petersburg.

JLL, one of the world’s largest real estate advisory firms, publishes quarterly market research to help investors, developers and tenants understand shifting conditions. This latest Tampa Bay report highlights how the region has quietly become one of the top-performing office markets in the country at a time when many U.S. metros are still struggling with elevated vacancy and weak absorption.

The headline number is net absorption. Tampa Bay recorded roughly 600,400 square feet of positive net absorption in 2025, the highest annual total since 2016. That level of demand pushed the region’s overall office vacancy rate down by 130 basis points year over year to 15.7 percent. Leasing momentum accelerated as the year progressed, with more than 150,000 square feet absorbed in each of the final three quarters, placing Tampa Bay among the top U.S. markets for office absorption.

What makes the performance more notable is that it occurred alongside a declining inventory base. Despite the delivery of about 176,400 square feet of new office space in 2025, the region’s total office inventory shrank by more than 750,000 square feet. JLL attributes the net loss to conversions and demolitions, a trend that has quietly tightened market conditions by removing older and less competitive buildings from the supply pool.

As a result, total available office space across Tampa Bay fell below 8.6 million square feet by the end of the year, down about 1.2 million square feet from a year earlier. The most pronounced tightening occurred in Westshore and Northwest Tampa, where two of the market’s largest recent leases were signed. Fisher Investments committed to 322,000 square feet at Renaissance Office Park, while GEICO leased 189,000 square feet at Corporate Oaks Office Park. JLL notes that both tenants have yet to occupy all of their space, signaling continued absorption into the first half of 2026.

The flight-to-quality trend that has defined office markets nationally is especially evident in Tampa Bay’s core submarkets, including downtown St. Petersburg. Vacancy for Trophy and Class A office space across the region fell to 14.7 percent by the end of 2025, the lowest level since early 2022. Six of the region’s seven submarkets recorded declines in high-end office vacancy over the year.

In the core areas of Tampa’s central business district, Westshore and the St. Pete CBD, Trophy and Class A net absorption totaled approximately 368,000 square feet in 2025. That demand pushed vacancy in those top-tier buildings down to 12.9 percent and put upward pressure on rents. Average Trophy and Class A asking rents in core locations rose 7.1 percent year over year to $45.46 per square foot, according to JLL.

The data suggests that tenants are increasingly willing to pay a premium for newer buildings, prime locations and higher-quality amenities, even as broader workplace debates around remote and hybrid work continue. In St. Petersburg, where downtown office inventory is relatively limited compared to Tampa, that concentration of demand could further constrain available space.

Looking ahead, JLL’s outlook for Tampa Bay remains cautiously optimistic. The firm points to the region’s economic growth and industry diversity as a stabilizing force for office demand. With limited new construction in the pipeline and more than half of the space currently under development already preleased, competitive pressure for well-located, high-quality offices is likely to persist.

For St. Petersburg and the wider Tampa Bay region, the report signals a market that is no longer simply recovering, but actively tightening. After years of uncertainty, office fundamentals are moving in a direction that favors landlords, particularly those with modern buildings in core urban locations.