Revised St. Pete job loss data provides optimism

It turns out that St. Petersburg’s job loss data was not half as bad as the numbers presented during the city’s State of the Economy address in May. 

Councilmember Gina Driscoll subsequently requested an administrative analysis on the declining job growth in June. “I absolutely do not want us to become a bedroom community for Tampa and other cities that are creating jobs,” she said. 

Driscoll and her colleagues heard welcome, yet not ideal, revised data Thursday morning at a city council committee meeting. St. Petersburg saw a 1.16% decline in jobs last year, rather than the previously highlighted 3%. 

“We would love to see growth,” said James Corbett, city development administrator. “But the decline was not what we thought it was when we reported that at the State of the Economy, once that data was refined.” 

Economic and Workforce Development Director Brian Caper explained that the city’s data stemmed from a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics survey. He called it the best estimate despite a margin for error. 

Caper said the agency provides initial data monthly before releasing a finalized version. Officials compiled their statistics April 14, four days before the bureau’s revisions. 

Those changes had a greater impact on labor force metrics. The previously reported 2.47% drop was in fact a slight decline of .64%. 

Caper said the city has performed “quite well” when considering long-term employment metrics. Five and 10-year data graphs show a gradual but steady increase outside of the pandemic’s peak. 

Foot Locker will generate 150 new jobs with an average annual salary of $120,000 when it opens its St. Pete headquarters later this year. Caper noted that “we also have some very significant investments in the healthcare sector” that will bolster the city’s workforce. 

Councilmember Brandi Gabbard is working to establish a training program that supports environmental resiliency and disaster mitigation efforts. Caper said master plans for the Gateway area she represents and the St. Petersburg Innovation District would also foster future employment opportunities. 

“We expect in the next year, those (jobs) numbers will be in the positive,” Caper added. 

Office space and ongoing concerns

There is still cause for concern. St. Petersburg’s labor force posted modest gains in 2019 and 2020 before spiking by roughly 4% in 2022 and 2023. The Home Shopping Network’s closure eliminated over 700 local positions. 

City stakeholders eagerly anticipated the Historic Gas Plant District’s redevelopment to create roughly 30,000 new jobs. The Tampa Bay Rays, a significant local employer, negated those plans and could now leave St. Petersburg.

Councilmember Corey Givens Jr. noted that over 100 Pinellas County Job Corps employees could soon lose their jobs. “I want to just be cognizant of that fact,” he said. 

Office space and workforce development intertwine, and Caper said the number of empty offices has gradually increased since 2021. While the city’s 8.3% vacancy rate is substantially lower than the 20.2% average across Tampa Bay, St. Petersburg’s $27.62 per square-foot average base rent is “too low to support speculative development.”

“The only way someone would come in to do office space … is either by having a discounted land value, having it as part of a mixed-use development – where profits are being made on multifamily (units), and some of those other uses then go to support and subsidize the office development – or they will build to occupy,” Caper elaborated. 

The issue is more about quality than quantity. Within the past month, Ark Invest and Dynasty Financial Partners have announced moves into new Class A office towers at Halcyon and the Residences at 400 Central, respectively. Those buildings are part of mixed-use developments. 

Caper said rents for the impending Class A office space would fall well short of the $75 per square-foot cost at the luxurious Thousand & One tower in Tampa’s Water Street district, “but it does get us a little bit closer to that.” Businesses in downtown St. Petersburg pay about $33 per square foot. 

“My biggest priority coming out of this that I think we should discuss is office space,” Driscoll said. “This is something that’s been on the referral list for a while.”

Driscoll, who chairs the Economic and Workforce Development Committee, said she and her colleagues would discuss opportunities to “help inspire and incentivize office space” at a later date.